Do Cigarette Excise Tax Hikes Cut Teen Smoking?

 

This report is divided into three parts:

1)  A recent news release from the Centers for Disease Control which states teen smoking did not decline after 2002, and this is just during the time states passed their draconian cigarette tax hikes.

 

2)  A regression analysis of CDC data on states’ teen smoking rates and states excise tax rates on cigarettes in 2003.

 

3)  References to other studies questioning if tax hikes cut teen smoking , and even if other public policy criteria are helpful.

 

To make it perfectly clear… I do not believe teens should smoke. Teens have not emotionally developed to the point where they can make rational, fully informed decisions about any of life’s choices. I also believe teens should not reproduce, consume alcohol, marry, or engage in sexual conduct.

 

I am writing this report because I believe antismoking researchers have created the false impression that massive cigarette tax increases will cut teen smoking rates in order to economically harass adult smokers, and fund their own agendas.

 

Consider the following: Recent research data from Teen Research Unlimited, a marketing-research firm based in Chicago found “The average teenager spends about $100 a week on discretionary purchases”   Source, The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sept. 3, 2002.  Therefore, since teens are generally light smokers, cigarettes remain affordable even when prices skyrocket.

 

 

1) A recent AP news article reports after teen smoking rates were on the decline from 1997 to 2002, they have leveled off between 2002-2005. According to the article “A survey released this week showed that smoking among high school students held steady at around one in four teenagers between 2003 and 2005. Two other surveys in the past year or so found that teen smoking has apparently plateaued since 2002.

"We were making good progress, and now it looks like we're not," said Dr. Corinne Husten, acting director of the Office on Smoking and Health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

 

See Read.

 

USA Teen Smoking

 

Antismoking researchers, of course, always claim cigarette excise tax hikes cut teen smoking rates under the theory teens cannot afford higher prices.  However, antismoking researchers are usually beneficiaries of excise tax hikes because some of these tax hikes are usually earmarked to fund antismoking research.

 

If it were true excise tax hikes cut teen smoking, then the period 2002 to 2005 is exactly when declines in teen smoking should have accelerated because no less than 40 states, covering most US teens, hiked excise taxes during this time period. According to The Tax Burden on Tobacco , the following states had per-pack cigarette tax hikes between 2002 and 2005:

 

AL $.165 to $.425  5-1-04

AK $1.00 to $1.60  1-1-05

AZ $.58 to 1.18    11-26-02

CO $.20 to $.84     1-1-05

CT $1.11 to $1.51 3-15-03

DE $.24 to $.55    8-1-03

DC $.65 to $1.00  1-1-03

GA $.12 to $.37   7-1-03

HI $1.00 in 2002 in steps to $1.40 in 2004

ID $.28 to $.57 6-1-03

IN $.155 to$.555 7-1-02

KS $.24 in 2002 in steps to $.79 in 2003

KY $.03 to $.30 6-1-05

LA $.24 to $.36 8-1-02

ME $1.00 to $2.00 9-19-05

MD $.66 to $1.00 6-1-02

MA $.76 to $1.51 7-25-02

MI $.76 in 2002 in steps to $2.00 in 2004

MN $.48 to $1.485 8-1-05

MT $.18 in 2003 in steps to $1.70 in 2005

NE $.34 to $.64 10-1-02

NV $.35 to $.80 7-1-05

NH $.52 to >80 7-1-05

NJ $.80 in 2002 in steps to $2.40 in 2004

NM $.21 to $.91 7-1-03

NY $1.11 to 1.50 4-3-02

NC $.05 to $.30  9-1-05

OH $.24 in 2002 in steps to $1.25 in 2005

OK $.23 to 1.03 1-1-05

OR $.68 in 2002 in steps to $1.18 in 2004

PA $.31 in 2002 in steps to $1.35 in 2004

RI $1.00 in 2002 in steps to $2.46 in 2004

SD $.33 to $.53 3-18-03

TN $.13 to $.20 7-1-02

UT $.515 to $.695 5-1-02

VT $.44 in 2002 in steps to $1.19 in 2003

VA $.25 in steps to $.30 in 2005

WA $1.425 to $2.025 7-1-05

 

It is obvious excise taxes teens and adults paid roughly doubled in most states between 2002 and 2005. This, of course is the supreme test: if cigarette taxes really do cut teen smoking, then teen smoking should have drastically declined in this period.  It is obvious they did not, since teen smoking rates remained stable.  It is also noteworthy during the period 1997 to 2002 during which the news article reported teen smoking rates did fall, excise taxes were not nearly so high. These findings are exactly the opposite of what we would expect if teen smoking rates were sensitive to cigarette taxes.

 

2) Unlike antismoking researchers, who would selectively study only states where teen smoking rates declined when excise taxes increased, I will analyze all the data from the CDC’s STATES system (note not all states report teen smoking rates to the CDC) and run a regression analysis to determine if states with high tax rates really do have lower teen smoking rates.

 

Data :the CDCs “STATES” ( State Tobacco Activities and Tracking System) for 2003, which is the most recent year available, from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey ( YRBS), at Read.

 

Excise tax rates for 2003 from The Tax Burden on Tobacco.

 

VassarStats Printable Report
Linear correlation and Regression
Wed Jun 14 14:12:51 CDT 2006

 

Data SummaryT

r

r2

Slope

Y
Intercept

Std. Err. of
Estimate

-0.389

0.151

-0.034

1.3737

0.4004

 

t

df

-2.313

30

P

one-tailed

0.0139

 

two-tailed

0.0278


0.95 and 0.99 Confidence Intervals of rho

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

0.95

-0.649

-0.047

0.99

-0.71

0.067

 

Values entered:

 

Pairs

TEEN SMOKING RATE 2003

EXCISE TAX 2003

Residuals

AL
AK
AZ
DE
FL
GA
ID
IN
KY
ME
MA
MI
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV

NH

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

RI

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

WV

WI

WY

 

24.7
19.2
20.9
23.5
18.1
20.9
14.0
25.6
32.7
20.5
20.9
22.6
25.0
24.8
22.9
24.1
19.6
19.1
20.2
24.8
30.2
22.2
26.5
19.3
30.0
27.6
24.3
7.3
22.1
28.5
23.6
26.0

.165
1.00
1.18
.24
.339
.12
.57
.555
.03
1.00
1.51
1.25
.18
.17
.70
.64
.35
.52
1.50
.05
.44
.55
.23
1.32
.53
.20
.41
.695
.93
.55
.77
.12

-0.36
0.286
0.525
-0.326
-0.413
-0.535
-0.323
0.061
-0.22
0.331
0.855
0.653
-0.335
-0.351
0.113
0.094
-0.35
-0.197
0.82
-0.471
0.104
-0.061
-0.233
0.61
0.187
-0.225
-0.129
-0.428
0.316
0.156
0.207
-0.36

 

 

Section 2 conclusion. The Vassarstats program analyzes data pairs and calculates, among other results the Pearson product-moment correlation and the coefficient of determination for more information, see http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/corr_stats.html.  What my analysis found, is that there is only a 38.9% chance that states’ ( this is the ‘r’ variable reported above) high excise tax rates cause low teen smoking rates. EG: there is an 61% chance that teen smoking rates are controlled by other variables.  As can also be seen below, the r-squared was .151 which means there is an 85% chance teen smoking rates are not related to excise tax rates.


3) For further reading:

Recently, researchers at the Goteborg University Dept of Economics in Sweden, found gender and personal characteristics of teens are much more important than cigarette prices. .

http://www.handels.gu.se/epc/data/html/html/PDF/gunwpe0062.pdf

 

The State of California found taxes don’t cut teen smoking

See http://www.lao.ca.gov/cup0396.html

 

Also, some recent research has found laws aimed at teen smoking don’t work either. Etter J-F. Laws prohibiting the sale of tobacco to minors: impacts and adverse consequences. Am J Prev Med 31(1), 2006.

See www.hbns.org/getDocument.cfm?documentID=1284

 

Cornell researchers find boosting taxes does not cut teen smoking. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/04/980409080915.htm

 

And consider this: The Canadian Tobacco Products Control Act of 1989 increased the cigarette tax to C$3.86 on Jan 1, 1990. As can be seen below, even this massive tax hike did not reduce teen smoking.

 

Canadian Teen Smoking Rates

1989

Male Teen smoking =22%

Female Teen smoking = 24%

1991

19%

25%

1994

27%

30%

source:  http://quit.org.au/BackgroundBriefs/15Yth_RTS.html

 

June 10, 2006
David W. Kuneman

Director of Research

The Smoker's Club, Inc.

 


But wait! Don't the antismokers always claim excise tax hikes on cigarettes cut teen smoking? According to this article, teen smoking ceased declining after 2002. In the time period since, several states and New York City, and Chicago launched heafty excise tax hikes on cigarettes. The fact this didn't enhance the decline of teen smoking rates which had existed prior to 2002 is a pretty strong indicator teens are not influenced by cigarette prices.

Teen Smoking No Longer on the Decline, Survey Says

By MIKE STOBBE, AP

ATLANTA (June 10) - The long, steady decline in teen smoking in the U.S. since the late 1990s appears to have come to a standstill, health officials said Friday.

A survey released this week showed that smoking among high school students held steady at around one in four teenagers between 2003 and 2005. Two other surveys in the past year or so found that teen smoking has apparently plateaued since 2002.

"We were making good progress, and now it looks like we're not," said Dr. Corinne Husten, acting director of the Office on Smoking and Health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The trend was outlined in the CDC's National Youth Risk Behavior Survey, which is conducted every other year and involves about 14,000 high school students across the country. The results of the latest survey were released Thursday.

The survey had been showing a steady and pronounced decline in youth smoking since 1997, when more than 36 percent of students said they had smoked in the previous 30 days. The percentages dropped to about 35 in 1999, 28.5 in 2001 and 22 in 2003.

But when students were asked the question last spring, 23 percent said they had smoked. The increase from the 2003 survey was not considered statistically significant, but it was disturbing news, health advocates said.

"The fact that youth smoking rates are not declining anymore is a wake-up call," said Vince Willmore, a spokesman for the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

A CDC survey released in April 2005 showed tobacco use in high school and middle school remained unchanged between 2002 and 2004. And a University of Michigan survey released in December found smoking had leveled off among eighth-graders.

"This is the third survey giving us this same pattern," Husten said.

Youth smoking rates were on a steady increase in the early 1990s, until a combination of events caused them to start plummeting, said Thomas Glynn of the American Cancer Society.

First, a settlement between states and the tobacco industry limited cigarette advertising and provided billions for anti-smoking campaigns. States also devoted money to tobacco control and prevention activities. And many raised cigarette taxes.

But funding has waned for anti-smoking advertising, and many states have shifted money to other uses, Willmore said. Meanwhile, tobacco companies have spent billions of dollars on price discounts for cigarettes, he said.

The latest CDC survey indicated slight declines in the percentages of high school students who were heavy smokers, had ever tried smoking, or had smoked on school property. But CDC officials discounted those differences, saying the changes were too small to be statistically significant.

But the number of youngsters who say they have had a cigarette in the last 30 days is considered the most accepted measure of what is going on.
Read.

Students Light Up Despite School Anti-Smoking Programs
18-Jul-2006
It may take more than anti-smoking lessons in the classroom to keep school-age children and teens from lighting up, according to a recent review of studies.
Read


Read: The Truth Campaign is a Failure


HOME