Short-term Ban Loss in Pueblo CO After Smoking Ban

The city of Pueblo CO, has a population of about 100,000 and Pueblo County, CO has a population of about 130,000. Of the approximately 298 restaurants in Pueblo County, about 214 are within the city limits of Pueblo. The city of Pueblo has a stable employment profile. Pueblo city is home to a campus of the University of Colorado, and the U.S. Government's document distribution center is located there. Pueblo is also the county seat of Pueblo County, and home to a national air guard base.

On May 20, 2003, the voters approved a citywide smoking ban covering all bars and restaurants within the city limits. The ban took effect July 1, 2003. The state Department of Revenue sporadically reports restaurant retail sales data of all counties and although data specifically for the city of Pueblo are not available, the county data are a good approximation of trends within the city because most restaurants within the county are also within the city. Data for bar and tavern sales are apparently not available on the State's Dept. of Revenue website however,

The Rocky Mountain news reported bar sales were down up to 65% after the smoking ban.
Read

According to the Department of Revenue, restaurant sales in Pueblo County fell after the ban took effect, but the Department of Revenue did not cite the ban as the cause. For example:

For the first quarter of 2004 (post-ban) , Pueblo County was the only Colorado county where restaurant sales were down.
Read
And during the fourth quarter of 2003 (post-ban), Pueblo County showed the largest decrease in restaurant sales which were down 9.4%
Read
During the third quarter of 2004, sales increased, however according to the Convention and Visitors Bureau, Pueblo hosted the state Democratic Convention that quarter.
Read
During the first quarter of 2005, Pueblo County experienced the largest growth (14%) in restaurant sales, however, this was in comparison to Q-1 2004 when the ban was already in effect. According to the Convention and Visitors Bureau, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers held a convention there which could explain the apparent recovery.
Read
During the second quarter of 2003, ( pre-ban), Pueblo County restaurant sales were flat with respect to the same period in the prior year, but the state showed a 1.1% decrease.
Read

According to these data, restaurant-only-sales in thousands, were:

	Pueblo County	Statewide	%
Q4, 2002	$38440	$1400891	2.74
Q1,2003	$35801	$1391863	2.57
Q2,2003	$37239	$1431088	2.60
	ban took effect 7/1/03
Q3,2003	$39726	$1530172	2.60
Q4,2003	$34828	$1409755	2.33
Q1,2004	$35366	$1495167	2.36

As can be seen on the graph below, the percentage of statewide restaurant sales due to Pueblo County was steady, but after the ban took effect, the percentage of statewide restaurant sales due to sales within the county began to drop. Growth in the rest of the state continued upward, but Pueblo restaurants sales were $4 million lower in Q-4 2003 than Q-4 2002, and $450,000 lower in the respective Q-1's after the ban. Considering Pueblo's stable economy, it is unlikely any factor other than the ban could explain this. Of course, if sales in Pueblo County outside the city limits were unaffected, then restaurant sales loss within the city limits were actually more than the loss represented by the county data by a factor of 298/214= 1.4 times worse than the county data represent.

David W. Kuneman
Director of Research
The Smoker's Club, Inc.

HOME